27 October 2026

Could gut bacteria help predict memory decline?

Research supported by Rosetrees is uncovering new clues about the link between gut health and brain function, potentially paving the way for earlier identification of people at risk of cognitive decline.

Researchers from Cardiff University and Imperial College London have found that gut bacteria and chemicals could help identify people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and predict whose memory and thinking skills may decline more quickly.

MCI involves changes in memory and thinking that are greater than expected with ageing. While it does not always progress, some people go on to develop more serious cognitive difficulties, including dementia.

The team analysed faecal samples from 35 older adults, using machine learning to identify patterns in gut bacteria and chemicals associated with MCI. They found that people with MCI had distinct gut profiles compared with those without cognitive impairment. Some of these bacterial markers were also able to distinguish between the two groups in an independent dataset.

By following participants with MCI for a year, the researchers also identified particular bacteria and chemicals associated with faster cognitive decline.

Professor Paul Morgan of Cardiff University said: “This study leads us to conclude that the gut could offer a window into what’s happening in the brain at the earliest stages of cognitive decline.”

The findings suggest that analysing gut bacteria and chemicals together could eventually support the development of simple, non-invasive tests to help identify people at risk. However, the study was small, and larger studies are needed to confirm the results and understand the influence of factors such as diet, lifestyle and genetics.

Supporting innovative research

Rosetrees supported this research through a Major Project Grant awarded in 2019. By funding innovative biomedical research, we aim to advance understanding of disease and help lay the foundations for future improvements in diagnosis and patient care.

Read the full study: Profiling Gut Microbiome and Metabolites Aids Diagnosis and Prediction of Progression in Mild Cognitive Impairment, published in MedComm.